Mobile Web is expected to dominate mobile payments in North America and Europe through to 2016. NFC transactions will remain relatively low through 2015, but will start to pick up from 2016.
Gartner (May 2012): there will be 212.2 million m-payment users in 2011 (up from 160.5 million in 2011), m-payments will total US $171.5 billion in 2012 (up 61.9 percent from $105.9 billion in 2011).
Portio Research (March 2010): There were 81.3 million people worldwide using their mobile device to make payments (including in-app payments, mobile ticketing and mobile coupons) in 2009. By the end of 2014, this is forecasted to rise to nearly 490 million (8 percent of mobile subscribers).• Digital goods is the largest segment and will account for nearly 40% of the market in 2015.
Juniper Research (June 2011): 1.8 billion consumers globally will buy digital goods via their mobile in 2011, this will rise to 2.5 billion in 2015.
But IDC (May 2010) believes that in EMEA, m-payments will take off slower than m-banking, forecasting that less than 13 percent of mobile subscribers will be registered to use m-payments and volume of m-payments will be no more than $125 billion. Thus m-payments will take off slower than many industry observers hope, due to the complexity and set-up costs for retailers. However, strong growth in m-banking will lay the foundations for growth in mobile payments.